Craig Chapman-Hall ([info]craigienz) wrote,

Revision

Here are some revised election predictions. Please note, there are going to be no more revising. The first ones should have been the ones that you expect. They are the ones that you are going to use for the King Of The Castle competition.


Party Current Craig Greg Mike Brett
Labour 51 49 46 47 51
National 27 35 44 42 41
Maori 1 6 4 4 4
Greens 9 8 8 11 12
Progressives 2 2 2 1 1
United 8 4 2 3 5
NZ First 13 10 12 13 8
ACT 9 6 2 0 0
Total 120 120 120 121 122


You will notice two of the predictions have more than 120 seats, which is what New Zealand's Parliament is designed to hold. This is called an over hang. This is quoted from Wikipedia. "
Under MMP, a party is entitled to a number of seats based on its share
of the total vote. If a party is entitled to ten seats, but wins only
seven constituencies, it will be awarded three extra seats, bringing it
up to its required number. This only works, however, if the party's
seat entitlement is greater than (or equal to) the number of
constituencies it won. If, for example, a party is entitled to five
seats, but wins six constituencies, the sixth seat is called an
overhang seat."

If you wish to understand more about the New Zealand election, it could be fun to read this site.

Also those two people that have had overhangs have added stuff to the predictions:
MIKE: Labour to lose: Banks Peninsula, Hamilton East, Invercargill, Otago, Wairarapa, Wellington Central, all to National. Te Tai Tokerau, Tamaki Makaurau, Waiariki to the Maori Party, Unknowns: East Coast, Whanganui, Northcote, Kaikoura, Tamaki. Anderton could lose Wigram (Something that Craig is doubtful of).

Brett: Expects both Progressives and Maori Party to create an overhang. National and NZ First have peaked to soon. The greens don't seem scary to anyone any more, so will do well. Brett doesn't know if they will be in cabinet, but will have a role to play in Government.

There are other things to tell you, but I really don't care that much.

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